during Super Bowl media week. | Photo from @nfl on Instagram
Feb. 4, 2026 | Isaac Garcia | Sports Editor
Before the season began, it was inconceivable that this year’s Super Bowl matchup would feature the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots. In fact, according to preseason betting odds, this Super Bowl matchup is the most unlikely in the game’s history at 80-to-1 odds, or a 1.23% chance. While both teams were generally considered to be headed in the right direction, both have ascended far quicker than expected. The Seahawks were coming off of a decent season, having gone 10-7 but just barely missing out on the playoffs. The Patriots were coming off of back-to-back 4-13 seasons after ruling the NFL for the better part of two decades. Now, Feb. 8, both teams will look to cap off their pleasantly surprising seasons by winning the coveted Lombardi Trophy. Seattle will be looking for their second title in franchise history, while New England will be looking for their seventh, which would put them in the lead for the most titles among any NFL franchise.
The game is a rematch of the 2014 Super Bowl, which is widely considered one of the most entertaining Super Bowls of all time, ending with the Patriots erasing a ten point fourth quarter deficit and intercepting a pass intended for Ricardo Lockette on the goal line with 21 seconds remaining in the game, securing a 28-24 victory. The decision to throw on the goal line as opposed to handing the ball to running back Marshawn Lynch is one that’s haunted the franchise and has been questioned ever since. This year’s game marks their first time back since that heartbreaking defeat.
On offense, the Seahawks are led by quarterback Sam Darnold and receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is having an incredible year with 119 receptions, a league-leading 1,793 receiving yards and ten touchdown catches. The passing game has been improved by the midseason acquisition of Rashid Shaheed who came over in a trade with the New Orleans Saints. The addition of Shaheed has been valuable both on offense and special teams, as he returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown in the divisional round game against the San Francisco 49ers that eventually ended in a 41-6 victory.
The Patriots are led by second year MVP candidate Drake Maye at the quarterback position and running back duo Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson, who’ve combined for more than 1,500 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns. Veteran receiver Stefon Diggs leads the team with 1,013 receiving yards and 85 receptions, although it’s tight end Hunter Henry who leads the team with seven receiving touchdowns. Both teams are of similar quality on offense and average 5.9 yards per play. When looking exclusively at yards per pass attempt, the Patriots lead the league with 8.6, but the Seahawks follow very close behind with 8.5.
Defensively, the Seahawks have an elite unit and are tied for second place in the least yards allowed per play with 4.7. The defense is led by three Pro Bowl selections with linebacker DeMarcus Lawrence, cornerback Devon Witherspoon and defensive tackle Leonard Williams. Rookie safety Nick Emmanwori is a defensive Rookie of the Year candidate and gives the defense a lot of flexibility in their schemes due to his versatility and ability to wreck plays from anywhere on the field. A unique element of Seattle’s defense is that they will call different components of their defensive coverage, such as formation, pressure type and coverage type in pieces as opposed to a singular call that covers it entirely. This allows Seattle to mix and match different components and even install new defensive plays on the fly, which makes it incredibly difficult for offenses to prepare as the plays might not show up on film studies.
With the talk around Seattle’s defense, New England’s defensive unit may be a bit overlooked. The Patriots ranked just a few spots below Seattle in yards allowed per play, giving up only 4.9. Their defense is headlined by former Oregon Ducks cornerback and 2026 Pro Bowler Christian Gonzalez. Gonzalez only has one interception this season, but that stat is misleading. He is an elite defender who does such a great job in coverage that opposing quarterbacks rarely throw his direction, therefore limiting his chances to create a turnover. Linebacker Harold Landry leads the team with 8.5 sacks while K’Lavon Chaisson is right behind him with 7.5. They’ve also benefited greatly from the return of defensive end Milton Williams who missed five games this season due to injury.
As for who wins the matchup, it’s important to understand the weaknesses of both teams and how they may be attacked by the opposing team. For Seattle, they turn the ball over at a very high rate which is cause for concern. Over the course of the season they were 31st in giveaways, averaging 1.8 per game. They’ve avoided turning the ball over completely in the playoffs, and if that trend continues, they should win as expected. In fact, Seattle is undefeated this season when having fewer than two giveaways. New England is an opportunistic defense, coming in 10th in forced turnovers with 1.4 per game.
For the Patriots, they’ll need to find a way to keep the rush off of Maye as he is sacked at the fifth highest rate in the entire league and has been sacked a total of 15 times in just the past three games. Plus, for as good as their offense has looked all season, the playoffs have been a bit of a different story. They scored only 16 against the Los Angeles Chargers in the wild card game. Against the Texans in the divisional round, they scored 28 points but turned it over three times. In the conference championship game they only put up ten points against Denver, and while yes, the snow was a factor, they only scored seven points in the first half before the snow even really took effect. Luckily for Maye, Seattle is actually the lightest pass rush they’ve faced in the postseason thus far, sitting at 13th in the league for sack rate compared to Denver in first, Houston in fifth and Los Angeles in sixth. With that said, it’s still slightly above average and Seattle forces turnovers at a high rate as well.
Seattle also brings the best offense that New England has seen in the playoffs, and possibly the entire season, making the margin for error significantly lower. While some might say that the Patriots could have Christian Gonzalez shadow Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the Seahawks move him all over the field and have even had him run routes out of the backfield, making it incredibly difficult to dedicate any sort of shadow or double team onto him. In addition, Shaheed and Cooper Kupp make dedicating heavy resources to stopping Smith-Njigba a less formidable strategy. Not to mention the Seattle running game having improved significantly over the home stretch of the season means New England will need to stay honest and keep at least a few players close to the line of scrimmage. Through the entire season, and especially as of late, Seattle seems like a stronger and more consistent team, and while New England most certainly has a path to victory, it feels like Seattle’s game to lose. Again, if they protect the ball like they’ve done in these playoffs, they should be able to take care of business.
Prediction: Seahawks 28, Patriots 20.
Contact the author at howlsports@mail.wou.edu
