BY FILMON TEKLAY - FREELANCER
Dr. Edwin Dover, professor of political science at Western, compared the national division of political parties to the trench warfare of World War I in an analysis of the recent midterm election.
“We have more or less a 10 mile trench where we fight our partisan battles,” Dover said of this country’s political divisions. “Both sides probe around for a soft spot, both sides mobilize massive levels of resources to gain a few miles.”
According to Dover, the dividing line is in the suburbs, which is where the battles are found, state after state. The Democrats dominate major urban areas he explained, while the Republicans control rural territories around the country.
“We don’t really have blue states or red states, what we have are Urban vs. Rural,” said Dover.
Dover broke down his analysis into three parts, commenting on the local, state and national elections.
Dover uses the aftermath of the election to illustrate the use of trench warfare in local, state and federal races across the country. He explained that the Democrats won one seat, the local race in District 20, in the Oregon House of Representatives, while the remaining seats in the Oregon House went to the same party that held them before.
The local race in District 20 took place between Paul Evans and Kathy Goss. Dover was involved in Evans’s campaign and he followed the race closely.
“This was a hard fought battle because it is where the suburban fault line rests,” Dover said. “This was the most expensive campaign for the state legislature in Oregon.”
Evans and Goss each spent about $500,000, and both campaigns received support and contribution from their respective parties. Evans defeated Goss by a three percent margin, and Dover thinks Goss was defeated mainly because her campaign made a couple of fundamental mistakes.
“Sometimes that three percent may not be part of the national trend,” Dover said. “It may be something esoteric to a campaign.”
According to Dover, the first mistake Goss made was her reluctance to debate Evans on numerous occasions. She was also not able to capitalize on advertising, while Evans was able to build both positive advertisements toward himself and attack advertisements aimed at Goss.
The Democrats gained two seats in the Oregon State Senate.
Dover said Washington County, Marion County and Clackamas County are the three areas that more or less decide State elections in Oregon, and these counties are primarily suburbs.
Other states have similar political scenes to Oregon, and Dover expanded his idea about the division of politics in regards to suburban battle lines to a national context.
All of the races for seats in the House of Representatives were fought in suburbs of various cities and states such as Miami and New Hampshire. Dover analyzed the recent changes in the House of Representatives and the Senate.
“The Democrats gained 11 seats in 2012 and lost 12 seats this time,” Dover explained, adding that, over time, most of the seats remained the same. Overall, neither party gained any ground in the House of Representatives.
On the other hand, the Senate “is where the Republican Party made significant gains,” said Dover. “The Republican Party so far has gained eight seats and probably nine – the ninth seat is Louisiana.” The advancements made by the Republicans gave them 54 seats, and control of the Senate.
The races for Senate were in Republican states or battleground states which is favorable terrain for them.
“In the next election, there will be 24 Republicans and 10 Democrats up for Senate in 2016, and many of the Republicans are in very Democratic states,” said Dover. “So the Republican Party will have a little trouble keeping this majority.”
Dover discussed the difference of turnout between Presidential elections and off-year elections, explaining that people over 60 tend to have a greater turnout for off-year elections, while people younger than 30 do not have a significant turnout for off-year elections.
